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  <meta name="description" content="沙盘与复盘柳传志：我的复盘方法论1、何为复盘在这些年管理工作和自我成长中，「复盘」是最令我受益的工具之一。在奔忙行走的日日夜夜，从不回头观望自己和同行人的职场人，有可能连前方道路是否正确这最基本的方向感都会丧失。 孟子说“仁者如射”，意思就是射箭的人摆好姿势把箭射出去，如果射不到，不要埋怨客观原因，而是要从中间总结经验。所以，复盘要形成习惯。《荀子·劝学》中也讲：君子博学而日参省乎己，则知明而行无">
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<meta property="og:description" content="沙盘与复盘柳传志：我的复盘方法论1、何为复盘在这些年管理工作和自我成长中，「复盘」是最令我受益的工具之一。在奔忙行走的日日夜夜，从不回头观望自己和同行人的职场人，有可能连前方道路是否正确这最基本的方向感都会丧失。 孟子说“仁者如射”，意思就是射箭的人摆好姿势把箭射出去，如果射不到，不要埋怨客观原因，而是要从中间总结经验。所以，复盘要形成习惯。《荀子·劝学》中也讲：君子博学而日参省乎己，则知明而行无">
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        <h1 id="沙盘与复盘"><a href="#沙盘与复盘" class="headerlink" title="沙盘与复盘"></a>沙盘与复盘</h1><h1 id="柳传志：我的复盘方法论"><a href="#柳传志：我的复盘方法论" class="headerlink" title="柳传志：我的复盘方法论"></a>柳传志：我的复盘方法论</h1><h2 id="1、何为复盘"><a href="#1、何为复盘" class="headerlink" title="1、何为复盘"></a>1、何为复盘</h2><p>在这些年管理工作和自我成长中，「复盘」是最令我受益的工具之一。在奔忙行走的日日夜夜，从不回头观望自己和同行人的职场人，有可能连前方道路是否正确这最基本的方向感都会丧失。</p>
<p>孟子说“仁者如射”，意思就是射箭的人摆好姿势把箭射出去，如果射不到，不要埋怨客观原因，而是要从中间总结经验。所以，复盘要形成习惯。《荀子·劝学》中也讲：君子博学而日参省乎己，则知明而行无过矣。说的就是要学会复盘。</p>
<p>「复盘」这个词最早来源于棋类术语，也称「复局」，指对局完毕后，复演该盘棋的记录，以检查对局中对弈者的优劣与得失关键。每天「打谱」，按照棋谱排演，有效地加深对这盘对弈的印象，也可以找出双方攻守的漏洞。</p>
<p>复盘被认为是围棋选手增长棋力的最重要方法，尤其是自己和高水平者对弈时，可以通过他人的视角看到自己思考不足的地方，从而将别人的经验化为己用。围棋棋手的训练方法很简单：不断下棋，简单复盘，日复一日，年复一年。方法最单调但也最有效。</p>
<p>通俗来说，复盘就是把当时「走」的过程重复多遍，并且主动思考为什么这么「走」，下一步应该如何设计，接下来的几步该怎么走。从棋阵来看，复盘是攻守结合的切磋，从心理战来看，能更好地对比双方的心理思维，最终总结出所谓的「套路」。当「套路」熟捻于心，就自然能达到高手的境界了。</p>
<p>下棋可以「复盘」，商业模式和个人管理亦如此。差别在于心态和眼界的不同。复盘作为一种常用的工具，几乎可以运用到任何人和事相关联的介质中。</p>
<p>它区别于总结，需要去个人化，完全回归到实物原生状态，解剖所有与其相关联的环节，一件一件去回忆、分析，最终需要得到一个更好的可能性。总结起来，复盘的关键在于及时、迅速、有效与反复。</p>
<h2 id="2、为何要复盘"><a href="#2、为何要复盘" class="headerlink" title="2、为何要复盘"></a>2、为何要复盘</h2><p>当然不用这个方法论的商业精英也大有人在，并不是说不复盘就不能成功。我只想强调一个观点，复盘没有任何损失，而且可以随时反馈当下的情况，不让下次的「更好」和自己擦肩而过。复盘对于参与的所有个人而言，有时候也是一次残酷的自我解剖的过程。</p>
<p>复盘的好处，简单归纳如下：</p>
<p>1）、不在同一坑里跌倒，避免重复犯错；</p>
<p>虽然每次实践都不可能做到百分百完美，但在复盘的时候，我们知道哪些地方做得不尽如人意，原因是客观还是主观。如果能找到一些之前没有注意的坑，对自己而言也是一个大收获。</p>
<p>同样的错误不再犯，是复盘追求的第一层次的目标。战术上的查漏补缺具有历史性和环境因素干扰，不易简单复制。但是有了战略层面的升维，战术上的重复犯错将可以降低甚至杜绝。</p>
<p>2）、知道团队强弱项，合理分工；</p>
<p>复盘，到底在复什么？其实就是人和事，两者缺一不可。</p>
<p>每个人都有自己的强弱项，如果分工合理，长板效应会更突显。反之，短板效应的危害也是有目共睹的。复盘追求的第二层次的目标，在于了解团队中的每个人，实现合理分工，最终的目标，不是彼此牵制，而是彼此融合和互促。</p>
<p>3）、知己知彼，磨练内心；</p>
<p>复盘一件事情的来龙去脉，跟下一盘棋一样，都是彼此在斗智斗勇。过程中对自己心理上的成长和锤炼，是复盘第三层次的目标，也是个人和团队在这其中获得的最大收获。</p>
<p>4）、知道如何能更好，胜在细节；</p>
<p>在全盘当中，存在着各个细微的环节，这些环节环环相扣，最终导致了结果。所以复盘的过程，也是将细节重新暴晒的过程。知道了哪些地方有可能更好，才能在下一次实践中迭代和升级。</p>
<h2 id="3、如何复盘"><a href="#3、如何复盘" class="headerlink" title="3、如何复盘"></a>3、如何复盘</h2><p>复盘的四步骤：</p>
<p>第一个步骤、回顾目标：当初的目的或期望是什么；</p>
<p>第二个步骤、评估结果：和原定目标相比有哪些亮点和不足；</p>
<p>第三个步骤、分析原因：事情成功和失败的根本原因，包括主观和客观两方面；</p>
<p>第四个步骤、总结经验：需要实施哪些新举措，需要继续哪些措施，需要叫停哪些项目。</p>
<p>上面的四个步骤，还可以拆分成八个具体的流程：</p>
<p>1）、回顾目标：就是回顾复盘事件的目标。将手段当成目标是我们常见的错误。回顾目标时，需要将目标清晰明确地在某一个地方写出来，以防止参与复盘的人员中途偏离目标。</p>
<p>2）、结果对比：结果与目标的对比，有四种可能产生的情况：</p>
<p>结果和目标一致，完成所设目标；</p>
<p>结果超越目标，完成情况比预期还更好；</p>
<p>结果不如目标，完成情况比预期要差；</p>
<p>在做事的过程中新添加了预期没有的项目。</p>
<p>结果对比的目的不是为了发现差距，而是为了发现问题。</p>
<p>3）、叙述过程： 过程叙述的目的是让所有复盘参与人员都知道事件的过程，这样大家才有共同讨论的基础，不要浪费时间在信息层面。</p>
<p>4）、自我剖析 ：自我剖析的时候，要客观，要能够对自己不留情面。自我剖析是去分辨事情的可控因素，搞清楚到底是因为自己掌控的部门出了问题，还是别的部分出了问题。</p>
<p>5）、众人设问：通过众人的视角来设问，这样可以突破个人见识的局限。设问要探索多种可能性以及其边界。</p>
<p>6）、总结规律 ：时间是检验规律正确与否的唯一标准。复盘得出的结论是否可靠，一般来说可以通过3个原则来评判：</p>
<p>结论落脚点是否发生在偶然事件上？当复盘的结论落脚在偶然因素上一定是错误的。复盘没有进入到逻辑层面，没经过逻辑验证，结果一定不可信。</p>
<p>复盘结论是指向人还是指向事？结论如果是指向人则说明复盘没有到位。复盘是要总结客观规律，人是变量。指向事，则复盘到规律的可能性更高。复盘的结论是从事物的本质去理解分析，这是验证复盘结论是否可靠的标准之一。</p>
<p>是否是经过交叉验证得出的结论？「孤证不能定案」是法律上的术语，用来比喻复盘得出的结论通过其他事情交叉验证，也可以为结论的有效性提供一定的保障。</p>
<p>7）、案例佐证 ：自我剖析，就是自己对做过的事情进行反省和思考。自我剖析是一个自我成长的机会。</p>
<p>8）、复盘归档：经过上述七步复盘得出的结论，就具有较高的可信度了。这些就是得到了认可和值得传播的观念和规律。有必要进行复盘和归档， 将这些认识知识化，方便传播和查阅。好的经验心得可以让人少走弯路，工作更顺畅。</p>
<p>当然这是最完善的步骤，在具体复盘时，并不需一定按照这个步骤，可自行调整。</p>
<h2 id="沙盘–计划"><a href="#沙盘–计划" class="headerlink" title="沙盘–计划"></a>沙盘–计划</h2><h2 id="复盘–回顾"><a href="#复盘–回顾" class="headerlink" title="复盘–回顾"></a>复盘–回顾</h2>
      
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<script >
AV.init({
  appId: 'ngFQzHw7z0HgQfrtn4En4WTN-gzGzoHsz',
  appKey: 'W9hgBBfVDwRGJKoGp5a6HKpx'
});

function showTime(Counter) {
	var query = new AV.Query(Counter);
		var visitors= $('.leancloud_visitors');
		query.greaterThanOrEqualTo("time", 0);		
		query.find({
			success: function(results) {
				if (results.length == 0) {				
					return;
				}
				var data = results;
				visitors.each(function(){
					var url = $(this).attr('id').trim();					
					for (var i = 0; i < data.length; i++) {
						var object = data[i];
						var content = object.get('time');
						var _url = object.get('url')
						if(url == _url){
							$(this).text(content);
						}
					}
				})
				
			},
			error: function(object, error) {
				console.log("Error: " + error.code + " " + error.message);
			}
		});
}

function addCount(Counter) {
	var Counter = AV.Object.extend("Counter");
	url = $(".leancloud_visitors").attr('id').trim();
	title = $(".leancloud_visitors").attr('data-flag-title').trim();
	var query = new AV.Query(Counter);
	query.equalTo("url", url);
	query.find({
		success: function(results) {
			if (results.length > 0) {
				var counter = results[0];
				counter.fetchWhenSave(true);
				counter.increment("time");
				counter.save(null, {
					success: function(counter) {
						var content = counter.get('time');
						$(document.getElementById(url)).text(content);
					},
					error: function(counter, error) {
						console.log('Failed to save Visitor num, with error message: ' + error.message);
					}
				});
			} else {
				var newcounter = new Counter();
				newcounter.set("title", title);
				newcounter.set("url", url);
				newcounter.set("time", 1);
				newcounter.save(null, {
					success: function(newcounter) {
					    console.log("newcounter.get('time')="+newcounter.get('time'));
						var content = newcounter.get('time');
						$(document.getElementById(url)).text(content);
					},
					error: function(newcounter, error) {
						console.log('Failed to create');
					}
				});
			}
		},
		error: function(error) {
			console.log('Error:' + error.code + " " + error.message);
		}
	});
}
$(function() {
	var Counter = AV.Object.extend("Counter");
	if ($('.leancloud_visitors').length == 1) {
		addCount(Counter);
	} else {
		showTime(Counter);
	}
}); 
</script>



   
    
  <!-- <script src="//cdn1.lncld.net/static/js/3.0.4/av-min.js"></script> -->
  <script src="//cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/valine"></script>
  <script type="text/javascript">
  var GUEST = ['nick', 'mail', 'link'];
  var meta = 'nick,mail,link';
  meta = meta.split(',').filter(function(item) {
    return GUEST.indexOf(item) > -1;
  });
  new Valine({
    el: '#vcomments',
    verify: false,
    notify: false,
    appId: '',
    appKey: '',
    placeholder: 'Just go go',
    avatar: 'mm',
    meta: meta,
    pageSize: '10' || 10,
    visitor: false
  });
  </script>

     







</body>
</html>